Where have you been all my life?
How many times have you asked that question of something or someone who made you wonder what you did with out it or them? How many people have asked that about you?
If you haven't been asked that question. Or asked that question yourself, then pause for a moment and think about what would make that happen. What makes you indispensable and transformational?
Where have you been all my life is a way to measure whether you're on to something.
If suddenly found and appreciated, how missed would you be if you went away? Or if the thing you do went away?
This is a simple question and a simple concept. But it isn't easy. And because it isn't easy, there's opportunity for those who seek it.
I know most all want the easy. Last week I talked about doing the hard work we work hard to avoid. It goes to fearing failure. We want easy because we want certainty. Yet with easy comes easy to copy. Easy to outsource. Easy to replace. Easy isn't defensible. In fact, if you can write predictable rules for doing your thing, most anyone can be trained. Or automated. Which drives your margins into the ground.
Think, too, about algorithms. Your daily digital life runs on them. By default you are too if you depend much on your smartphone. Or Google anything. You don’t want an algorithm to replace you. That means you need to rise above them. Your work needs to not fit into an algorithm. Unless you can write and monetize such an algorithm yourself.
Where might you find these "Where have you been all my life" opportunities?
One place is to look at where people and businesses are spending money. That's where the opportunity lies for you. Because that's where the problems people will pay money to solve are found. Not in where they're cutting spending. Look too, at where people are spending more time. Because they either found something that they enjoy or provides huge benefits. Or maybe they're trying to solve a problem that doesn't yet have a simple solution.
If you think you can't find out what businesses are spending money on, consider all of the public companies that have to report. their financials.
Look at the different buckets and how they trend over time. Look at business categories that are growing and by how much. That tells you what's important. Look at job categories that are growing or declining as an indicator of where money is being invested.
Pick a business sector that you're interested in and either know something about or are curious to learn. You'll then be more likely to dive deep. It takes sleuthing but the interwebs are a treasure trove for the curious. https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=320187&owner=exclude
Europe requires different financial reporting than the U.S. with more detail. Look not just at financials but the key topics a company focuses on. For example, check out page 31 of BMW's 2020 report which includes illegal deforestation and lobbying in associations. And taking advantage of trends in personal mobility and digitalization of everything. Here's Adidas' corporate strategy On this same site are several different documents in which you can go deeper.
Compare a company's filings with what they say publicly. Look at their competitors. What's similar? What's different? The best opportunities may be hiding in plain sight. But they're not going to be headline news. Otherwise everyone would jump on it. Your curiosity needs to connect the dots. But look at what you can unearth from your keyboard! Simple. But not easy.
On a personal level, look at your bank statements over time. Where's you money going this year versus two years ago? How about asking friends the same question?
You can often only connect the dots in reverse.
Last week I read Shoe Dog by Phil Knight. I'd wanted to read it since it came out in 2016 but having thought of Nike as too big for it's britches, I delayed picking it up. What a gem this book is. While it's about a hometown company, the magic is the story about uncertainty connected with ambition. It's also about the challenge of growth. How to finance it, manage it, sustain it.
For the first few years, the banks kept telling Phil he was growing too fast. Needed to slow down. Double sales. Don't triple them. To Phil, how do you do that when there's demand?
It's also about managing relationships. Making things. Shipping things. Logistics. Consistency.
Nike's success was anything but certain. In fact, it was always one step ahead of failure. In fact, it was people rooting for them that saved their bacon when the checks started bouncing after their main source of shoes and financing needed to be repaid $1 million. Other creditors' checks bounced. Paychecks bounced. And their third bank kicked them to the curb and called the FBI.
Their success was also about standing for something. Believing in something. And an unending penchant for scrappiness.
Carolyn Davidson was famously paid $35 for the original swoosh. Which Phil didn't even much like at first. And then when someone called it a swoosh others asked, "what the hell is that?" Answer: the sound a runner makes when it runs by you.
Phil chose bright orange shoe boxes because everyone else's were subdued. He wanted to stand out and it was an easy way to do so. And so it went in those early years. Decision under deadline. A company held together by grit.
The book goes year by year talking about what it took to stay alive to see the next. It's a lesson in what it takes to start and build a company. It also gives you hope as you build your company. Or your thing. Your work portfolio. It's back to the power of doing the hard work I talked about last week.
The next time some tells you making money or creating a side hustle is so simple, don’t assume it’s easy. That’s where the many get stuck and give up. If you know it’s gonna be hard going into it, you won’t be surprised. On the flip side, you have goldmines of information and tools at your fingertips Phil never had when he started Blue Ribbon Sports which became Nike. It’s easier than ever to start. But not simple to do. When you need a shot of grit, pick up Shoe Dog. There’s a lot of power to keeping on with keeping on.