Inviting uncertainty, and what about this recession I keep hearing about?

Issue 70

Welcome to the new home of Own The Cow and our 70th issue. All of the previous posts have been moved over and I'll shutdown the Substack account within a couple of weeks.

Why did I move? To provide more flexibility to develop this newsletter and build a community. The Ghost platform offers creators and publishers a comprehensive platform to build upon. (I didn't get paid to say that either).

The news around the world continues be not great.

Beyond the war in Ukraine, yet another tragic mass shooting closer to home is too much. And it seems the pandemic will keep on keeping on for the foreseeable future. We need to learn to live with that. We should never get complacent with senseless killing. Add to this rapid inflation and talk of recession and one might wonder how to stay positive and focused.

It's easy to get sucked into the negative. But you and I can't control these events. We can control how we show up every day. So let's dive into more of what YOU can do to create a vibrant, financially sound future. And enjoy the journey in the process.

Let's start with inviting uncertainty into your life. Business wants to be predictable. Chance is risky. Make decisions based on data and you'll be okay. Except when you're not. And certainty is an illusion anyway. Nothing stays static forever. When you invite uncertainty, you invite possibility. This is where you stretch beyond what you think you're capable of. Sometimes you have to try something and see what happens.

I'm always harping on the need for curiosity. It's a quality I seek when I'm interviewing candidates for a role. It's where the magic can happen. When you're curious, you're more willing to embrace the unknown. You're able to ask better questions which lead to better answers. And you're able to act to see if you're right or not. To see if this idea leads somewhere or not. Without curiosity, you tend not go deep. You skim the surface and miss out on creating better experiences and better products.

Have you ever found yourself an expert in something and thus unable to act because you know too much? You know everything that can go wrong which keeps you paralyzed?

Remember when you dove into a project or pursuit as a newbie wearing brilliant rose colored glasses? Were you not were filled with joy at the possibility that lay ahead?

Now while ignorance isn't bliss and this isn't a license to be blindly stupid, not knowing can keep you focused on what's possible. It reframes obstacles as things to overcome so you can keep going rather than brick walls that keep you stuck.

Embrace what you don't know with curiosity. Not having all the answers can lead you to connect dots differently. Or keep things from becoming too complicated. You'll boil the kiddie pool instead of the ocean. You act rather than sit on the sidelines.

So I hear a recession is coming, what should I do?

Great question. Obviously no one has a crystal ball. But you can do a few things to get yourself in shape to weather the storm. Or even take advantage of a downturn. While durable goods, food, and gas are more expensive and often getting harder to get than ever, there's opportunity for the prepared, especially when people need to shed real estate or businesses close (hint, that might be a good time to buy one that aligns with your vision).

Here's what I'd do (and am doing):

First, make sure you're living within your means. Just as companies start watching their expenses, you should too.

Second, as a W-2 employee, make sure you're a top performer. I'm assuming you are, but even some of the best get shown the door. Even when you read about the great resignation and how many companies are having a tough time hiring, layoffs are happening. Especially with startups. Just look at Layoffs.fyi. Never get complacent. Startups pivot and companies restructure. PE firms buy, merge and release redundant employees to gain economies of scale. Companies who get ready to sell may shed employees to improve their balance sheet.

While there's never a guarantee you'll have a job tomorrow, being indispensable is insurance against being one of the earliest to go. Just be great. Everyday. And if you do get let go, being great gives you a leg up on finding your next gig.

Next, always be learning. Stay fresh. Stay current. Make sure the value you offer today won't be obsolete tomorrow. The internet gives you a gazillion ways to do so for free. Paid courses are usually accelerators to learning. They give you the path rather than you having to find it yourself.

Recession proofing yourself is why I'm a big advocate for developing multiple revenue streams. But as I've said before, this isn't easy. What you don't want to do is spend a bunch of time on side hustles that don't earn you money (or if they're not earning, then not giving you joy). There's no reason to blow up all of your weekends on a side hustle. Did you know most earn an average of $16 - $23/hour according to a recent survey? 4.7% earn more than $10,000/month and over half in this survey reported earning less than $100/month.

Be smart about how you use your time. It takes work. It takes creativity. Make sure you have a path to go from zero to your goal. And if you find yourself spinning in circles it's time to pivot.

How about entrepreneurs? I saw a stat recently that the median entrepreneur earns about $43,200 per year.  Starting out, they can earn minimum wage. Of course, the sky is the limit. Smart entrepreneurs learn how to execute and pivot their way to success. Like anything, there are winners and losers. It's about your mindset, your vision and your discipline.

There is no guaranteed path to riches. Huge success stories are outliers. That's why it's so important to be clear on who you are, what value you offer and how you package and position yourself whether you're an employee, independent contractor, entrepreneur or business owner. The cool thing is you get to choose your path.

Let's bring this back to the beauty of not knowing. Getting hung up on these stats isn't a reason not to pursue your vision. Knowing these stats should motivate you to do the soul searching and clarify how you want to work. And get real about the work it's going to take. It should also be a wake up call to make time for fun and self-care. The beauty of not knowing is it gets you to get to work figuring things out.

I like this quote from Martha Beck: "The way you do anything is the way you do everything."

How will you show up in the coming recession?

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