Slip, slidin' away...

Hello all - I'm just back from a couple of trade shows, the last of which proved to be a Covid super-spreader event. I'd say maybe 1% of people in Las Vegas wore masks.  I'm wondering how many didn't wear masks due to the social anxiety of doing so when so many were not. I confess I felt a little odd at times myself, yet I mostly did and so far am in the clear. But I still took risks. I've shared with others that I feel like I'm playing a video game of Asteroids (anyone remember Asteroids?) and have been lucky to dodge them but sooner or later one's going to get me. Most seemed to party like it was 1999.

What's this got to do with your career and financial security?

Two things:
• You need to know your level of risk tolerance and act accordingly.
• You need to be willing to do things that others won't to fulfill your goals.

Opportunity doesn't lurk in what everyone else is doing. The crowd forces commoditization. The money is in differentiation that creates value. Which is why I'm always harping on the need to set yourself apart from the herd.

You've likely heard about the supply chain shortages affecting everything from computer chips to paint to wine corks (you can see via corks show that things are not impacted in the same way). This causes prices to rise. And companies to hack their way around it (did you know Tesla is shipping cars without USB ports?). It may be that we've reached peak consumerism when anything we wanted can be had anytime. Currently we have to plan more and be a trifle patient.

This opens up opportunities to create value.

Consider how you might help companies work around these shortages by changing how they think. Sometimes a company gets stuck in one way of thinking, and your outside perspective can open things up. This is how innovators can unseat entrenched players. It's hard to pivot when it means letting go of how you do things. A classic example is how Kodak invented the digital camera yet didn't pursue it aggressively because they didn't want to canabalize their film business.

Helping established companies connect the dots in new ways is high value. Think about your skillset and how you might use that to help others. Not only can it be financially rewarding, but it offers personal satisfaction when such work aligns with your values and goals.

How do you find these opportunities? By showing up with your networks. By letting them know what you stand for and what you're looking for. To be proactive make a list of 100 companies you want to work with. Then identify people within them you can approach via Linkedin. If you don't know someone at a particular company, look at your sphere as the odds are that someone in your network does. One connection leads to another.

To open doors more easily, create a digital footprint that shows - not tells - the value you can bring. Go deep in an area of expertise. Be the  person who does "X" in a way that others don't or can't. Such a footprint includes personal case studies, writing, or even sharing useful content with commentary that shows how you think and solve problems.

If Linkedin isn't your thing, Twitter is the next best tool to connect with others. I know what you're thinking: that Twitter is a cesspool of noise and banality. That's true if you let it. Curate your feed by following start-ups and business leaders. Use the same list of businesses and people you created for Linkedin and follow them - or people close to them on Twitter. Unfollow anyone who's just spouting off seeking attention. You don't need such distraction. Twitter is actually a place where you carve out a niche of good people. It's not a one-size fits all. And I can't promise it'll stay that way if Elon actually buys it!

If this sounds like a lot of work, it is. That's why most people don't do this. It takes consistent focus to pay off. To make it sustainable, consider spending 30 minutes daily on this task. Make it part of your daily routine.

Success comes from relationships and relationships take time to build. And a millisecond to break.

Crypto, hype and the economy

A year ago, Bitcoin and Ethereum were rising rapidly. NFTs were all the rage and it was off to the races with crypto. It felt as though you'd missed out if you hadn't gotten in a year ago. The frenzy was real. Especially around NFTs which were selling for crazy amounts.

Some were saying that Bitcoin would hit $100K by the end of 2021. It didn't. And is crashing like a runaway elevator.  Now some are saying it'll reach $100K by end of 2022. Clearly there's no crystal ball. Surprised?

The market cap for Crypto has dropped $2 Trillion since November and is now below $1 Trillion.

As a result, significant layoffs are underway at the major crypto companies like Coinbase who over hired. Other crypto companies are faltering because they operated on hype over fundamentals.

Just like the buying frenzy, hype creates a selling frenzy. And like the dot com crash, spotlights wobbly business models.

Much development has occurred in this area over the last few years and major dips have happened before. Crypto may rebound, and we may see some sanity after we hit bottom and the news cycle moves on to something else.

The important thing is to keep your wits about you. Step away from the hype and look at the fundamentals. Those never go out of style. We've seen the cycle repeated when companies are built on hype, lacking a solid business model, they eventually crash. Beware of the hype. This happens in overheated real estate markets too of course with the financial crisis where lending money on homes to people who couldn't afford them tumbled down.

In the gold rush there was a lot of money made in selling the tools to mine for gold. Today, selling the tools to do the latest thing is still usually good business. It just may be your mind that you're selling instead of shovels.

Are you clear on your fundamentals?

Just like dot com businesses of the late 90s, crypto was (is) sexy. These businesses are fun. But not stable. Think boring instead. You have to anchor your work in the mundane because that's what tends to endure. Often these boring businesses are the services and trades like electricians and plumbers that can't be automated or outsourced. Think about what you and I need no matter what the economy does. Then think about how you can create value here. Just because they're not sexy doesn't mean you can't have fun or create great experiences within them.

It's easy for businesses and people to get sloppy when the money's flowing. The tough times require more creativity. And that rewards those who put substance over flash. Once you secure your base revenue streams, THEN you can carve out space for the cool and sexy like crypto. Where the play and work you do there doesn't impact your livelihood should they crash as they are now.

Watch the Crypto and Web3 space though as now's the time - when they're at or near their lows - to jump in. Just know what your level of risk tolerance is. Make sure any action you take aligns with your own values and not the hype.

Now as inflation rages, interest rates rise and the recently hot job market chills, you'll read about the doom and gloom of economic collapse. We've been here before. Bad news gets the clicks. Bad news can mess with your head. Don't ignore the economic news (how could you anyway?), but don't let it consume you. Go back to the basics. There's opportunity for the creative and prepared.

Slow and steady never goes out of style. Keep going!