This week I've been reading Maria Konnikova's The Biggest Bluff in which she goes deep into the Poker world to study decision making. I'm not a gambler and initially wrote off her book as Poker doesn't interest me. However, this snapshot from Valeria Maltoni got me to rethink the book.

For years I've listened to Valeria's recommendations as she's voracious reader and deep thinker. It's one way I've used as a shortcut to knowing what to read.

What I learned about Poker is that it mirrors real life decision making in terms of skill and luck. The Biggest Bluff is a book about how to better manage yourself. I'm a believer that the better you know how you think and make decisions, and how others think and make decisions, the better able you are to navigate uncertainty.

There's a lot of psychology involved in successful poker. You learn to pay attention to details and anticipate the future even if you can't predict it. It's about rethinking. Which complement's Adam Grants book, Think Again. Poker is part math, part psychology. It's a mix of skill and luck. Just like life.

There's also time pressure. We humans make worse decisions under deadline. And get worse and worse closer to the clock running out. Anything I can do to improve my ability in this area is a win. It is for you too.

10,000 hours is a myth

Malcolm Gladwell popularized the notion that it takes 10,000 hours to get good at anything. It's not true either. You can spend 10,000 hours and still not get good. While someone else can spend much less and beat you. Some of us are better at some skills than others. Some of us are more motivated. Better learners. Whatever the case, it's not black and white, like everything. Okay, most everything.

Making good decisions requires an ability to accept imperfect information. You don't know what you don't know. But need to choose anyway. How you power through the unknown is getting better at noticing patterns and details.

This is no more relevant than in the business world. Business is comprised of millions of interconnected people making decisions daily based on their rational self interest with imperfect information. Certainty is such an illusion. You know you and I are both irrational. Just like everyone else. All of that irrationality can lead to some really nasty unintended consequences. Like climate change, for instance.

Everyone wants and plans to win. But not everyone does. In Poker sometimes the best hand loses and the worst hand wins. Same with business. Smart products well executed can fail. Maybe ill timed. Maybe due to unforeseen events. It's only certain in the rear view. Smart people in bad situations can fail. Just as mediocre people in a sweet spot can be unimaginably successful.

You can get dizzy mapping connections.

That smart phone in your pocket may be designed in Cupertino and assembled in China. But has parts from South Korea and Japan. And those parts have dependencies too. The supply chain required to get that phone into your pocket is immense.

Take the current chip shortage. And lumber shortage. And steel costs. Here's a micro example: originally I'd planned to create a raised garden with a couple of metal troughs I've seen around the neighborhood. Simple and inexpensive. My designey side popped up and demanded something cooler. I thought, what about making a couple 3x4 beds out of Cor-Ten steel? How pricey could it be? It's just rough, rusted steel in a rectangle. Turns out, very. $1,050 each. Gulp. I thanked the guy for the quote and passed. That's when he shared that steel prices are sky high. Just like wood.

Cars are going up too. Negotiations for a Kia SUV start at $10K over MSRP according to one who was looking. It's because all of the raw materials are going up, and production has declined with COVID due to plant shutdowns. That leaves fewer available cars. Lower volumes require high fixed costs be applied to fewer cars.

In short, the cost of everything seems to be up. Way up. Unintended consequences of a pandemic, our habits, and choices.

What should you do with this information?

Stop and question why you chose the approach you did. Were you successful because of skill or dumb luck? If the latter, then at some point your luck will run out. Make sure you know WHY you were successful. And know that the same decision under different circumstances can yield very different outcomes.

Your place in the decision tree influences your outcome. If you're early to choose and others come after, they benefit from the additional information. In poker, the last to play has an advantage based on position. The advantage is more information about the hand and how others played before they have to act. Same applies to negotiations. It's often good to go last!

Pay attention to how those around you make decisions. Are you doing something because everyone else is or because it's right for you? In many cases following the herd only leads to following the herd. Not leapfrogging towards your goals. The worms go to the early birds who see them first. It's often good to go first! Just know what you're risking and be okay with losing.

Embrace the joy of being wrong - something Grant talks a lot about. You learn more in adversity than you do when all is going your way.

If this sounds like a lot of work, you're right. Intentionally living life means you have to think. Train your brain to be nimble. To notice. It gets easier with practice. Never get complacent. What uncertainty deals you is always uncertain.

Which is why these four words contain so much value: less certainty. More inquiry.

Where will you focus your inquiry this week?

I’ll leave you with a master call under pressure Maria talks about in her book. You likely don’t face such high stakes in all of your work and I share this as a reminder to pause. Even when the clock is ticking.